IBA predicts 40 per cent increase in shop visits from 2024 to 2025

The aviation market intelligence and advisory company analysis shows that engine leasing activity has grown significantly with operators now favouring lease extensions to secure lift. 

In its recent webinar on the engine market, experts from IBA, Mike Yeomans, Director – Valuations and Consulting, Kane Ray, Head of General Aviation and Aftermarket, and Jamie Davey, Manager – Engines and Parts, discussed and explained the trends.

As the industry continues to cope with supply chain issues and a shortage of spare parts and raw materials, IBA is holding firm to its view that there will be around 2,500 shop visits in 2024 for CFM56-5B, CFM56-7B, V2500-A5, CFM LEAP-1A, CFM LEAP-1B, and PW1100G engines (excluding additional shop visits driven by GTF engine issues). IBA predicts that this will be followed by a significant jump to 3,500 visits in 2025 – representing a 40 per cent increase.

However, between 2025 and 2027, the situation should come to a slight plateau at around 3,800 visits annually, before peaking at over 4,000 visits in 2028. With the continued staffing shortages in MRO facilities and OEMs facing supply chain issues and scarce shop visit slots, operators will continue to extend current engine leases to combat shop visit turnaround times and uncertainty in new generation engine reliability. 

While quality issues still plague the new generation narrowbody fleets, market values remain stable. Driven by shop visit events, the greatest market value movements can be seen in the current generation fleet. The CFM56-7B is seeing the highest market value change with an increase of around 20 per cent from 2023 to 2024. As a result of GTF groundings and growing shop visit activity, A320ceo engine values have also increased. 

As the engine market recovers, lease rates for current and new narrowbody engines have risen above pre-pandemic levels. Due to smaller supply and higher demand, V2500-A5 lease rates are slightly higher than CFM56-5B in 2024. However, CFM56-7B monthly lease rates have grown the most from about $75,000 in 2019 to $100,000 in 2024. In the new narrowbody engine leasing space, A320neo engine-related groundings have led to increases in monthly lease rates with the LEAP-1A26 climbing from a value of $110,000 in 2023 to above $125,000 in 2024.

Lease rate increases can also be attributed to the rise in engine and aircraft lease extensions as the latter contributes to reduction of spare engine supply in the market. As extensions help avoid transition costs, they have become the most cost-effective option for lessors.

While the freighter market remains strong - demand has peaked. However, ideal widebody freighter conversion candidates such as the A330-300 and 777-300ER are surging in passenger demand driven by delays to new aircraft deliveries. Despite the rising engine values for New Generation Widebody Engines, the relationship between market values and base values have steadied with changes at barely 5 per cent.

With a shortage of spare parts and long turnaround times in shops, turboprop engines have experienced heightened demand. IBA has recorded market value increases to the popular PW127M and PW150A variants, although the trend is applicable to other PW120 engine family variants. Whilst PW1500G values have been adjusted to align better with base value, GTF issues will still affect the fleet. For mature regional jet engines like the CF34-8E, market values are stable. The CF24-8E and CF34-10E engine markets have had indications of demand increases and lease rate rises as Embraer E190 family lease extensions grow and, most importantly, signal future demand for engines.