Aviation Africa: Airbus connecting the dots in Africa’s aviation landscape

Speaking at a press briefing ahead of this year’s Aviation Africa Summit (taking place at the Sandton Convention Centre in Gauteng on September 16-17), Ellers emphasised that "Airbus' presence in Africa is as diverse as the continent itself."

Airbus has a long-standing history in Africa, dating back nearly 50 years. The first Airbus aircraft to operate on the continent was the A300, flown by South African Airways in 1976. Today, 36 African carriers operate 257 Airbus passenger aircraft across the continent.

Highlighting the critical role of air transport as a socio-economic driver for Africa, Ellers remarked, "Air transport enables the flow of goods, investment, and people. It boosts trade, e-commerce, tourism, and export opportunities, while also creating direct and indirect jobs and encouraging foreign direct investment. Moreover, it supports health, humanitarian efforts, and education, and enhances the quality of life."

Although the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a significant blow to Africa’s aviation sector, as it did globally, Ellers expressed optimism about the future. "COVID is behind us, and the future for Africa looks bright," he stated.

Ellers identified the key factors fuelling air traffic growth in Africa: faster-than-global economic growth, the world’s fastest-growing population, urbanisation, and a burgeoning middle class. The continent also attracts significant inbound tourism, including intra-African traffic, and has strong potential for outbound travel. He also acknowledged the transformative potential of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and the rise of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in shaping the future of African aviation.

"Aviation continues to show resilience. Traffic is recovering, and demand for aircraft replacements is on the rise," Ellers continued.

Looking ahead, Airbus projects significant growth for Africa from 2023 to 2043. The company forecasts a 3.7% annual increase in African GDP, a 4% rise in exports, and a population surge of 740 million. Additionally, the middle-class population is expected to grow by 360 million, while over 450 million people will move from rural areas to cities over the next two decades.

As a result, Airbus anticipates a doubling of air traffic on the continent between 2027 and 2043, with African airline fleets expected to grow by 2.8 times during the same period. To meet rising demand, Airbus forecasts that African airlines will require approximately 1,460 new aircraft from 2024 to 2043. Of these the company says, 83% (1,210 aircraft) will be single-aisle planes, such as the A320neo, and 17% (250 aircraft, including 20 new-built freighters) will be widebody aircraft like the A350.

"It's not just about new aircraft orders," Ellers noted, "but also about the need for maintenance and training services." Airbus projects the aircraft maintenance market in Africa to grow from $2.7 billion in 2023 to $5.5 billion by 2042. Additionally, the continent will require 15,000 new pilots and 20,000 technicians over the next 20 years, underscoring the high demand for training.

Despite Airbus' success, global supply chain challenges have impacted its customers, including those in Africa. Ellers acknowledged that, due to high demand, any airline ordering an aircraft today would face a backlog, with no availability until 2030-2031. "We’re a victim of our own success," he admitted. He also clarified that Airbus has no plans to establish a manufacturing facility in Africa, though the company already carries out significant industrial work on the continent, including in South Africa.

Addressing regional connectivity, Ellers highlighted the findings of a recent Airbus study on unserved routes in Africa. "We see strong demand for 130-150 seat aircraft to serve routes from the south to the north and west to east," he explained. "An aircraft like the A220 is ideal for its range and seating capacity, while the A320 is better suited for airlines targeting a larger market segment." He added that the question he always asks an airline when upgrading their fleet is do they prioritise the fleet or the network? "The answer is always network," he said, "but many airlines find themselves constrained by their existing fleets."

In response to a closing question on whether Airbus is in discussions with South African Airways, Ellers concluded: “As a long-standing customer of Airbus, we are, of course, still in talks with them. But I’d suggest you ask John Lamola, South African Airways interim CEO that question when he takes the stage at the summit tomorrow—I'd rather not get myself in trouble by saying something I shouldn’t."