Jordan trapped in the middle

The regionalisation of the conflict in Gaza has also increased security pressure on Jordan. In the past few years, Jordan has engaged in a low-key confrontation with Iran’s allies and networks of influence in Syria and Iraq, including drug cartels, which have increased their smuggling activities this year.

Iranian-backed militias operate across western Iraq and southern Syria, where they continually attack US facilities. The drone strike on the Jordan-based Tower 22 American military base was conducted from Iraq by one of these groups.

Jordan has a close bilateral defence relationship with the US, including a 2021 co-operation agreement and there are more than 3,000 members of the US armed forces stationed in Jordan as part of the US Central Command’s “Operation Inherent Resolve”, with squadrons of USAF Boeing F-15E Strike Eagles and Lockheed Martin F-16C Fighting Falcons, and a unit of General Atomics’ MQ-9A Reapers, operating in the country.

Currently, the security issues for Amman are domestic protests, including demonstrations in support of Gaza and to advocate for the termination of relations with Israel.

Iran and its partners in various Arab countries have also attempted to destabilise Jordan by spreading misinformation about Amman’s role in the crisis and by highlighting its relations with Western countries.

However, the Iran-backed militia Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced its intention to mobilise 12,000 Jordanian fighters against Israel. While Iran has violated Jordanian airspace during its air attacks against Israel launched in April 2024. Amman responded by shooting down UAVs over its territory, both to defend its sovereignty and to protect Jordanians from any threat they might pose.

At the same time some of its Arab neighbours have criticised the monarchy for joining a Western coalition in protecting Israel from air attacks.

The move, however, sent a clear message to both Israel and Iran that Jordan was not interested in taking part in a regional war, and the king said he would not allow his country to become a ‘theatre of war’ which has strengthened its standing in western capitals.

Jordan’s armed forces inventory mainly comprises older systems and procurements have been in small numbers, typically second-hand or donated. While its air defence capability is limited, equipped with some 100-point defence surface to air missiles (SAM), most of which are Russian systems approaching obsolescence. These include the 9K35 Strela and 9K38 Igla with a unit of MIM-23B Phase III I-Hawks.   

On the face of it, the Royal Jordanian Air Force (RJAF) appears to be the best equipped service, although many of its aircraft are in store and offered for sale. It is equipped with 60 combat capable Lockheed Martin F-16AM/BM Fighting Falcons, while 10 AT-802 Air Tractors are its main intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. Two Airbus AC235 light gunship aircraft delivered in 2014 are one of the types offered for sale.

The RJAF’s transport fleet includes a single Ilyushin Il-76TD Candid, and seven Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules, five of which are in store along with two Airbus C295Ms. Its training fleet comprises 14 Grob 120TPs and 12 Pilatus PC-21s with 12 BAe Hawk Mk63s in store and offered for sale

The RJAF has 29 Bell AH-19 Cobra attack helicopters, 12 of which have been upgraded and are in service while the remainder are in store awaiting sale, along with six MD530Fs.

The RJAF is one of the few air forces that operate the Mil Mi-26T heavy-lift helicopter, two of which are in service along with 20 Sikorsky UH-60A/M Black Hawks with five UH-60Ls in store.

Ten Eurocopter AS332M Super Pumas are being withdrawn from service, while three Leonardo AW139 and 11 Airbus Helicopters’ H135M multi-role helicopters are current. Training is carried out on five Bell 505 JetRanger X and 12 Robinson R-44 Raven IIs. Its unmanned assets include 12 Schiebel S-100 Camcopters and some Chinese CASC CH-4B armed UAVs, but again these are reported to to be in store, offered for sale.

Jordan has played the middleman in the region, balancing its relations with its Middle East neighbours and the West for generations and continues to do so.